Monthly Archive: January 2001

1. Statistical assessment of social and economic development
“The Republic of Belarus is a unitary democratic social jural state” reads the first clause of Article 1 of the Belarusian Constitution. It is obvious that of all definitions mentioned above the only one that is unconditionally observed is territorial integrity. As far as the remaining ones are concerned, we suppose that there are a lot of grounds to doubt that they are properly observed. Let us consider, for instance, how Belarusian authorities fulfil their constitutional obligations as regards our state’s “social orientation”.

1. Street actions – writer’s cramp?
Findings of our polls have more than once revealed the fact that in the Belarusian society there is serious discontent with the policies of the present state administration. In other words, one can be sure to say that not only the protest electorate exists, but it constitutes almost half of the body of electors. The demand for change is literally in the air.

1. New possibilities and old hazards
It is well-know that relations with Russia is a serious factor influencing domestic situation in Belarus in general and outcome of certain political campaigns in particular. Defeat of two democratic candidates – Z. Poznyak and S. Shushkevich – at the presidential elections of 1994 serves as an example for underevaluation or even neglect of this factor. At the first sight, it may seem that this factor has become monopoly of A. Lukashenko long ago. Yet, the latest unfolding of bilateral relations proves that it is, to put it mildly, not exactly so. The new master of the Kremlin has made it clear that another era has been started and the rules, which were used in the time of B. Yeltsin, do not work today. Integration is no longer an instrument for the fight against NATO,

1. Leaders’ confidence in state and public institutes
One can see from Table 1 that public leaders tend to trust independent research centers, non-state mass media and OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group as well as to entrepreneurs’ and trade unions. Leaders have the least of confidence with the militia, courts and Central Election Committee, National Assembly and the President. The positions occupied by the above mentioned institutes have not been changed over studied period and prove steady attitude of the Head of the state to them.

1. Discontent is growing
Analysis of dynamics of people’s attitude towards the present course and its main inspirer A. Lukashenko over the last year allows to make a conclusion that decline in support of this course, including popularity ratings of A. Lukashenko – is not a “collapse”, not a recurrent, but a relatively stable, and, perhaps, even steadfast tendency.