Monthly Archive: August 2000

The results of the polls show that people consider social and economic problems to be among the most vexed. Table 1 shows that the most important problems are price growth, impoverishment, unemployment and economic recession. At the same time, their aggregate importance slowly decreases: during the last two years it went down 5.7%. At the same time, the importance of legal problems, keeping order and observation of human rights increases (by 7.0%). Notably, the importance of each problem of the set is on an increase, especially the observation of human rights (more than twice).

It seems that Belarusian politicians are not fully aware of the country that we live in. The Belarusian people have a lot to do before this society may correspond to the standards of an informational society (see Table 7). Therefore, the ways to affect public opinions must be chosen correspondingly. Today’s public leaders, i.e. people who can really affect the decision-making, confidently think that mass media are the most efficient means to convey their message to the general public (Table 1).

Theoretically, it is clear that the views of social problems, shared by the elite and the views of people at large may substantially vary. The reasons are obvious: the elite has common cultural background, level of education, professionalism, access to information etc. All these factors among the elite are notably higher, than among the rest of the population. These facts allow us to make a guess, that in most cases the views of the elite reflect the processes under way in a more correct and adequate manner.

The results of the latest opinion polls indicate that the rating of A. Lukashenko is not shaking any more – it is on a steady decline (Table 1). As it has already been mentioned before, considering the overall atmosphere of fear and mistrust in society, the real figures may be somewhat less.

Russian-Belarusian relations is the old but always urgent problem, which needs attention of all Belarusian politicians, who want the electorate to trust them. The opposition needs to understand that their views of this problem, as well as the views of all other “elitists”, representing the state and non-state sector, make a lot of difference from the views shared by the majority of the electorate (Tables 1-3). This difference between their own views and the opinions of their potential supporters needs a speedy and efficient resolution.

The opinion polls, which were organized in recent years, reveal a latent inner tension in the Belarusian society. Around 7.5% of respondents (the figure has not significantly changed over the past few years) took part in public actions to express their opinions, thereby supporting radical actions (Tables 1 and 2). In August 2000, 23.7% of respondents said they were ready to participate in them.

A decision, whether to take part in the elections or boycott them primarily depends on the condition of the election race and on the chances of the opposition. First, we need to consider the fact, that during the last six moths Belarusian people at large have been showing a high (although it constantly decreases) readiness to vote in the elections. We cannot ignore electoral expectations, when they are so high. Therefore, a decision to boycott the elections must be well motivated and its meaning and the reasons behind it must be publicized as widely as possible.

The results of the opinion polls clearly indicate that there is lower readiness among respondents to take part in the parliamentary elections (Tables 1-4). More specifically, this readiness increased during the last few months, and now the trend is reverse. It is clear, however, that the respondents, who were ready to go and cast their votes in the past and have now changed their mind, did not decide that they should not vote at all (because the number of opponents of the elections does not grow).